Impact and Response Strategies for Population Aging in South Korea

Why Is South Korea Focusing on Population Aging?

South Korea has been undergoing a dramatic demographic shift in recent years. As of the end of 2024, for the first time in history, the proportion of the population aged 65 and over surpassed 20%, officially making the country a “super-aged society.” According to the UN standards, this marks a transition from an aging society (7%) and an aged society (14%) to a stage where one in five citizens is elderly. The percentage of those aged 65+ has doubled from around 10% in the late 2000s (10.2% in 2008) in just 16 years. Population aging refers to the increasing proportion of elderly people in a society, driven by both declining fertility rates and increased life expectancy. This issue has grown into a critical policy agenda because it affects not just population structure, but also has far-reaching socio-economic impacts. In South Korea, the unusually rapid pace of aging has further amplified concerns.

 

Demographic Causes of Population Aging

1. Decline in Youth Population Due to Low Birth Rates:
   The primary cause of aging in South Korea is the sharp drop in birth rates, leading to a smaller younger generation. In the 1970s, the total fertility rate (TFR) exceeded 4.0 per woman but sharply declined due to economic growth and family planning policies. It dropped to the 2.0 range in the late 1980s and then to the 1.0 range in the early 2000s. In 2018, the TFR fell below 1.0 (0.98), setting record lows every year since, reaching 0.78 in 2022—the lowest among OECD countries. It dropped even further to 0.72 in 2023, and despite a slight rebound to around 0.74 projected in 2024, it remains the lowest globally. This decline in newborns has caused the relative proportion of elderly people to rise. Research shows that the main driver of aging in South Korea over the past 50 years has been declining fertility, not mortality.
2. Extended Life Expectancy and Absolute Growth of the Elderly Population:
   Medical advancements and improved living standards have significantly increased life expectancy—from about 62 years in the 1970s to 83.5 years by 2020, among the highest in the OECD. This has increased the absolute number of elderly people. Though lower mortality doesn’t always lead to aging (in early demographic transitions, lower infant mortality can make a population younger), in today’s low-birth context, especially in Korea, reduced elderly mortality contributes to accelerated aging. Since the 2000s, improvements in elderly survival rates have increasingly influenced aging trends.
3. Limited Inflow of Migrants:
   Unlike some developed countries that use immigration to supplement the workforce and fertility, Korea has seen minimal demographic gains from migration due to cultural and policy constraints. As a result, even population projections from Statistics Korea assume no significant immigration impact, highlighting how little migration contributes to offsetting aging.

Summary:
In South Korea, aging is mainly driven by plummeting birth rates, compounded by increased longevity among older adults. This presents a textbook case of combined low fertility and aging, underscoring the need for integrated policy responses.

Social Impacts of Population Aging

As population aging progresses, generational structures and family forms are changing, destabilizing traditional support systems. The conventional model—where multiple children supported their aging parents—is weakening, while single-person elderly households and elderly couples living alone are on the rise. Consequently, issues such as loneliness and social isolation among the elderly are becoming more serious, alongside increases in elderly depression and suicide rates.

Elderly poverty is another serious social issue. As of 2020, South Korea had the highest elderly relative poverty rate among OECD countries at around 40%. It remained extremely high in 2022 (38.1%) and 2023 (38.2%), roughly three times the OECD average of 14%. This is closely tied to the lack of a robust post-retirement income security system. The income replacement rate of public pensions like the National Pension is low, with the average monthly pension benefit standing at only 620,000 KRW—barely half of the minimum living cost. As a result, many elderly people remain economically vulnerable.

This has led to a high employment rate among the elderly—also the highest in the OECD—but many of these jobs are of low quality, creating a vicious cycle where working doesn’t effectively reduce poverty. On a societal level, the burden of supporting the elderly is increasing. In 2022, the old-age dependency ratio—meaning the number of seniors aged 65+ supported by 100 working-age individuals—was about 26, and it’s rapidly rising. By 2050, this figure is projected to reach around 78.3, tripling today’s level. This means one worker will have to support 2.5 times more elderly people than now.

As the burden of generational support grows and elderly poverty worsens, the limits of family-based care are becoming evident, and demand for public welfare is surging. This includes rising calls for income support like basic pensions, housing and caregiving services, and the expansion of long-term care facilities, placing increasing pressure on the social welfare budget.

 

Economic Impacts of Population Aging

Population aging significantly affects the economic structure and national finances. First, the shrinking working-age population (ages 15–64) can lead to labor shortages and reduced economic vitality. With fewer young people, securing workers becomes harder across industries, including critical sectors like military, police, and caregiving. According to Statistics Korea, the total population peaked in the 2020s and is now in decline. It’s projected to drop to about 47.1 million by 2050 and fall to 36 million by around 2070—roughly a 30% decrease, reverting to levels seen in the late 1970s.

This population decline and aging are expected to suppress domestic consumption and investment demand, weakening economic growth. Institutions like the Bank of Korea and OECD have cited aging as a factor reducing the country’s potential growth rate.

Second, the rising dependency ratio will require changes in fiscal expenditure structure. Spending on pensions, healthcare, and elderly care is rapidly increasing and will consume a large portion of the government budget. For instance, with more beneficiaries and fewer contributors, the National Pension’s financial imbalance is deepening. Health insurance is also burdened by soaring elderly medical expenses.

In 2022, seniors accounted for 45.7 trillion KRW in healthcare costs—about 43% of all health insurance expenditures. Per capita, elderly healthcare costs were 2.5 times the average. These costs have been growing by over 10% annually for the past five years. If this trend continues, per capita elderly welfare spending could double or triple by 2050. Similarly, spending on pension payments, basic pensions, and long-term care is expected to explode, raising concerns about fiscal sustainability.

In summary, aging weakens economic growth engines, shifts public spending toward welfare, and—if not properly addressed—could intensify intergenerational fiscal imbalance.

 

Healthcare Impacts of Population Aging

With the growth of the elderly population, there have been major changes in disease patterns and demand for medical services. Generally, as people age, the prevalence of chronic diseases increases and their use of medical services rises. Thus, aging directly leads to higher healthcare costs and growing demand for medical resources. As previously mentioned, elderly healthcare expenditures already make up a significant portion of total healthcare spending and are increasing at double-digit annual growth rates.

Chronic illnesses such as hypertension, diabetes, arthritis, and dementia are rapidly becoming more prevalent, boosting demand for specialized healthcare workers and caregivers. However, the expansion of medical infrastructure and workforce has not kept pace, adding pressure to the healthcare system. For example, as of 2022, the number of physicians increased by only about 2%—a rate far too slow to meet the rising demand driven by aging.

Meanwhile, the number of long-term care recipients, including dementia patients, is soaring, creating explosive demand for nursing homes, care facilities, and home-care services. This has led to a shortage of caregivers and increased burdens on families. In particular, with nuclear families becoming the norm, family caregiving is less feasible, making the care gap more serious—especially for severe elderly cases like advanced dementia.

Although the government introduced the Long-Term Care Insurance system in 2008 and has been expanding facilities, it is still insufficient to meet the growing demand for caregivers and services. At the same time, advancements in medical technology have sparked public debate over end-of-life care and life-sustaining treatment. In this context, aging is calling for structural reforms in the entire healthcare system—including preventive health management, chronic disease care, and community-based caregiving strategies.

Ultimately, the focus must shift to extending healthy life expectancy (i.e., reducing years lived with illness) and strengthening community-based care models.

 

Current Status and Future Outlook: The Super-Aged Society in Korea

Current Aging Indicators in Korea

• Proportion of population aged 65 and over: About 17–18% as of 2023; surpassed 20% in 2024, officially entering the super-aged society stage. This is a near tripling from 7.2% in 2000.
• Number of elderly: As of December 2024, about 10.24 million people are aged 65+, surpassing 10 million for the first time—almost equivalent to Korea’s entire population in the 1970s.
• Median age: As of 2023, the median age (the age at which half the population is younger and half older) was about 44.9. It is expected to exceed 50 by around 2031.
• Dependency ratio: In 2022, the old-age dependency ratio was about 24–26 elderly per 100 working-age people, while the youth dependency ratio (children and adolescents) was about 16—totaling roughly 40 dependents per 100 workers. The old-age burden is increasing steadily.
• Births vs. deaths: In 2022, only 249,000 babies were born (a record low), while over 372,000 people died, clearly marking a natural population decline. The number of births fell even further in 2023 to the 230,000 range.
• Total Fertility Rate (TFR): A record low of 0.72 in 2023. The rate has steadily declined from 1.08 in 2005 to 0.98 in 2018, 0.78 in 2022, and 0.72 in 2023. It may slightly rebound to about 0.74 in 2024, but will remain the lowest in the world.
• Life Expectancy: As of 2021, average life expectancy was 83.6 years (80.6 for men, 86.6 for women). Though the rate of increase has slowed due to COVID-19, the overall trend remains upward.

These figures show that South Korea is aging at an unprecedented speed globally. It took just 7–8 years to move from an aged (14%) to a super-aged society (20%), compared to 40 years in France, 15 years in the U.S., and 11 years in Japan.

 

Future Outlook

In the coming decades, South Korea is projected to become one of the most aged countries in the world. According to the medium-variant scenario from Statistics Korea’s 2022–2072 Population Projections, the proportion of the population aged 65+ is expected to reach 25% by 2030, surpass 40% by 2050, and approach 47–48% by 2070. That means nearly half the population will be elderly—a demographic structure never seen before anywhere in the world.

Under the same projection, Korea’s total population will drop below 50 million in the mid-2030s and fall to around 36.2 million by 2070—reverting to the population size of the 1970s. The population pyramid will invert, creating a society with far more elderly than young people.

The median age is expected to reach 60 by 2056 and exceed 63 in the early 2070s, meaning even those over 60 could still be considered “younger” relative to the population. The old-age dependency ratio will rise sharply to 80 by 2050 and exceed 100 by the early 2070s, reaching 104 in 2072. In other words, South Korea may become the only country where each working-age person supports more than one elderly person.

If such an extreme scenario becomes reality, fundamental reforms to Korea’s pension, welfare, and labor systems will be inevitable. While demographic forecasts always carry uncertainties, without a dramatic reversal in fertility trends, aging will continue to intensify for decades.

In summary, by the mid-21st century, South Korea is likely to be the most aged society in the world, facing a double challenge of shrinking population and rapid aging.

 

Government and Societal Response Strategies

To address the challenges of population aging, the South Korean government and society are pursuing a multifaceted approach. The ultimate goal is to ease the trend of ultra-low fertility, supplement the working-age population, and adapt to inevitable aging in a way that ensures long-term sustainability. The main response strategies are as follows:

 

1) Combating Low Fertility and Improving Population Structure

Over the past few decades, the South Korean government has invested massive funds into policies to combat low fertility. From 2006 to 2022 alone, the budget for such efforts totaled around 280 trillion KRW. Programs have included childbirth incentives, childcare support, expanded parental leave, daycare centers, and housing assistance. However, as shown earlier, the total fertility rate continued to decline, suggesting limited effectiveness.

Reflecting on these outcomes, the policy focus has recently shifted from simple financial aid to improving the quality of life for younger generations and fostering a more marriage- and child-friendly environment. Examples include:

• Expanding flexible work systems to support work-life balance
• Promoting paternity leave for men
• Increasing after-school programs for elementary students

Other efforts aim to reduce the socioeconomic factors discouraging marriage and childbirth, such as improving job security (e.g., youth employment policies) and expanding housing for newlyweds. Additionally, strategic immigration is being considered as a way to offset the declining population. Beyond the current system of industrial trainees and marriage migrants, Korea is now looking into attracting high-skilled immigrants and supporting their settlement to reinforce the labor force in the long term.

Support for multicultural families and social integration of immigrants is also being strengthened as part of this broader strategy.

 

2) Extending Working Age and Utilizing the Elderly Workforce

Another key strategy to secure labor in a rapidly aging society is to increase economic participation among the elderly. A new generation of seniors—healthier and better educated than previous generations—is emerging. As a result, policies are being designed to:

• Gradually raise the legal retirement age (currently 60)
• Institutionalize re-employment options after retirement

Extending the retirement age and promoting senior employment are central to government and research agendas. In line with this, the government plans to offer nearly 1.1 million jobs for seniors by 2025, not only for income support but also to promote active aging.

Surveys show that many seniors are motivated to work and take pride in contributing to society. Therefore, the government is also expanding programs for:

• Retraining and upskilling older adults
• Encouraging second careers or entrepreneurship for people in their 50s and 60s
• Engaging retired professionals as mentors or volunteers

Ultimately, these strategies aim to reshape societal perceptions and recognize people over 60 as valuable and productive human resources—addressing both labor shortages and elderly poverty in the process.

 

3) Reforming Pension and Welfare Systems to Ensure Retirement Security

Given the severity of elderly poverty in Korea, reforming pension systems and strengthening the social safety net are essential. The National Pension System is currently facing a dual challenge: the risk of depletion due to aging and the inadequacy of benefit levels.

To address this, the government and National Assembly are debating pension reform, including:

• Raising contribution rates
• Adjusting income replacement rates
• Modifying the age for benefit commencement

Experts emphasize that strengthening post-retirement income security should be the top priority of pension reform. Without improvements in pension benefits, the social risks of aging will intensify.

To support low-income seniors, the government has announced plans to increase the Basic Pension from 300,000 KRW/month in 2023 to 400,000 KRW in phases. Other policies include:

• Reducing out-of-pocket medical expenses for seniors
• Expanding Long-Term Care Insurance benefits

At the same time, long-term fiscal planning is underway to prepare for increased welfare spending and ensure fairness across generations. In summary, the government is focusing on pension reform, raising basic pension payments, and strengthening support for medical and caregiving expenses to prevent seniors from falling into poverty and illness in the super-aged society.

 

4) Building an Age-Friendly Society and Strengthening Healthcare Responses

Responding to population aging also requires transforming the overall environment into one where seniors can live well. The government recently announced a comprehensive “Active Aging Society” policy across healthcare, education, housing, and transportation. Key initiatives include:

• Expanding chronic disease prevention and health promotion campaigns at the community level
• Establishing dementia relief centers nationwide to enhance dementia care and support
• Introducing a Community Care model that enables seniors to live in familiar neighborhoods while receiving necessary services

In the housing sector, efforts are being made to provide:

• Customized home renovations for seniors with limited mobility
• More senior-friendly public housing (e.g., 3,000 units of public rentals annually)

Barrier-free design in transportation and public facilities, as well as digital inclusion training for seniors, are also being implemented. On the private side, the “silver industry” is growing, offering healthcare tech, care robots, and smart home solutions to support independent elderly living.

Lastly, efforts are underway to turn aging into an opportunity—not a burden—by leveraging seniors' rich experience and wisdom. Examples include:

• Intergenerational solidarity programs
• Senior volunteer services
• Support for grandparent caregiving models

These initiatives aim to foster coexistence between generations and create a sustainable social model for the future.

 

Preparing for a Sustainable Aged Society

Population aging in South Korea is an irreversible reality and will significantly reshape the nation in the coming decades. Solving the ultra-low fertility issue is the fundamental long-term solution, but institutional innovation and social solidarity are equally essential for adapting to a super-aged society.

Some have proposed creating a dedicated Ministry for Population Policy to ensure more comprehensive and strategic action. Fortunately, the government and society are already recognizing the seriousness of the issue and have begun to respond through pension and welfare reforms, extending the working age, supporting families and childbirth, and promoting healthy aging.

Researchers stress the importance of not just living longer, but living healthier and more actively—encouraging elderly social participation and productivity. Population aging is both a challenge and a sign of progress (i.e., the benefits of longevity). If South Korea can implement balanced policies that reduce burdens on the young and ensure quality of life for the elderly, it will be able to remain a sustainable society despite rapid demographic change.

By wisely preparing for the super-aged society, all generations can coexist and build a sustainable future together.